全球性通讯技术分析(pdf 71页)(英文)

(1) ODM handset growth exceeds 40% annually through 2005, as outsourcing to ODM/EMS
companies continues at a rapid pace.
(2) Much-needed handset industry consolidation is delayed, as second- and third-tier OEMs
that should exit the business (e.g. Alcatel and SonyEricsson) find new hope by
outsourcing to ODM/EMS vendors.
(3) Current OEM leaders – Nokia, Motorola, and Samsung – may see margin impact in 2005
as too many competitors increase margin pressure throughout the supply chain. In spite of
this, we believe Nokia can sustain double-digit margins long term.
(4) ODM market share is consolidated by a few leaders, such as BenQ and Flextronics; strong
PC ODMs, Compal and Quanta, are also well positioned to benefit from consolidation.
(5) A shift to full system semiconductor solutions creates opportunities for most suppliers, but
it's a zero-sum market. Ultimately, high R&D requirements and price pressure drive
consolidation to benefit a few – Texas Instruments, Philips, and Intel.
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